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Hungary's Ministry of Finance has published its Medium-Term Economic Policy and Fiscal Programme for 2027–2030. It sets out a fiscal consolidation path, tax policy changes and structural reforms aimed at meeting the conditions for euro area accession by 2030. The Programme targets a reduction of the general government deficit from 7.5 % of GDP in 2026 to 2.8 % by 2030 and relies on EU funding and increased investment to support economic growth. The proposed measures may have significant implications for corporate taxation, public procurement, EU-funded investment projects and the broader business environment in Hungary.
The Hungarian Ministry of Finance published the Programme in October 2026.
The Government forecasts GDP growth of 2.4 % in 2027 and 2.6 % in 2028, followed by a target growth path of 3.0 % in 2029 and 3.1 % in 2030. The figures for 2029 and 2030 are economic policy objectives rather than conventional forecasts, and they depend on the implementation of structural reforms and a recovery in investment.
A central objective is to reduce the general government deficit from 7.5 % of GDP in 2026 to 4.9 % in 2027, followed by a gradual decline to 2.8 % by 2030. The Government intends to achieve most of the deficit reduction at the beginning of the programme period, primarily through expenditure-side measures. These include reducing excessive state operating expenditure, reviewing overpriced public procurement, and making corporate subsidies more targeted. In addition to approximately HUF 700bln in savings achieved in 2026, the Programme identifies potential further savings of HUF 1,465bln in 2027.
The Programme also envisages changes to the tax system. These include a wealth tax targeting taxpayers with the highest ability to pay, a large-corporate tax regime aligned with the global minimum tax framework, and a review of corporate income tax allowances. Unjustified tax allowances and loopholes are also to be eliminated. Separately, pursuant to Government Resolution 1247/2026 (VIII. 7.), a Public Finance Working Group is preparing a broader reform of the public finance framework, which is expected to be adopted by the National Assembly during 2027.
EU funding is another key pillar of the economic strategy. The Programme refers to EUR 16.4bln in EU funding secured for Hungary. The relevant EU resources include cohesion policy funds, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and, from 2028, the National and Regional Partnership Plan (NRPP). The Government expects EU funding equivalent to approximately 3 % of GDP to flow annually to the public and private sectors. More than EUR 1.8bln in RRF funding has also been earmarked for 2027–2030, including measures aimed at improving the competitiveness of Hungarian SMEs.
Finally, the Programme identifies meeting all the conditions for euro area accession by 2030 at the latest as a key medium-term policy objective. The strategy focuses on fiscal consolidation, price stability and the convergence of long-term interest rates. The National Bank of Hungary (Magyar Nemzeti Bank) is also expected to play a role in anchoring inflation expectations and preparing for banking union accession.
The Programme signals a planned shift towards tighter fiscal discipline, a restructuring of corporate taxation and a more targeted allocation of public resources. If implemented, these measures could affect the tax position of businesses, the availability of state support and the conditions for participating in public procurement procedures.
The proposed large-corporate tax regime and the review of corporate tax allowances are particularly relevant for companies operating in Hungary, as they may change the effective tax environment and the availability of existing tax incentives. The planned wealth tax may also affect certain high-net-worth taxpayers, but its practical implications will only become clear once the detailed rules are adopted.
The expected inflow of EU funding could create investment opportunities, particularly in infrastructure, transport, energy and digitalisation. Access to funding will, however, remain dependent on the applicable eligibility requirements and on the fulfilment of EU-related milestones. These include commitments concerning judicial reforms, public procurement transparency and the restructuring of public-interest asset management foundations.
Meeting the convergence criteria could contribute to greater macroeconomic stability and lower financing costs over the longer term. However, the Programme sets a target for meeting the accession conditions only. It does not establish a date for introducing the euro or provide a specific timetable for ERM II participation.
Large corporations and corporate taxpayers may be affected by the planned large-corporate tax regime, alignment with the global minimum tax framework and the review of corporate income tax allowances.
Small and medium-sized enterprises may benefit from EU-funded programmes and more targeted business support schemes.
Companies participating in public procurement may be affected by changes to procurement expenditure, transparency requirements and the Government's plans to strengthen competition.
Businesses involved in infrastructure, energy, transport and digitalisation may benefit from increased EU-funded investment, subject to the relevant funding conditions. Investors and financial institutions may be affected by fiscal consolidation, changes in the financing environment and progress towards euro area accession. Finally, high-net-worth individuals may be affected by the planned wealth tax, depending on its eventual scope.
Key developments to monitor include the detailed rules governing the proposed wealth tax, the design of the large-corporate tax regime and changes to corporate income tax allowances, and the adoption of the public finance reform package expected in 2027. Businesses should also follow the implementation of expenditure reduction measures and changes to public procurement and corporate subsidy schemes, the availability of EU funding and the fulfilment of the relevant milestones and eligibility conditions, as well as progress towards meeting the Maastricht convergence criteria and Hungary's eventual participation in ERM II.
As the Programme is a medium-term policy document rather than a legislative package, its practical implications will depend on the adoption of the relevant legislation and implementing measures.
Vivien
Veres
Associate
hungary